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P34LABOUR AND STARMER TRUSTED BY 1 IN 3 OF ELECTORATE – BUT STILL HIGHER THAN SUNAK P6 I GUIDE TO TONIGHT’S DEBATE P10 WHY CORBYN SUPPORTERS ARE TURNING AGAINST HIM IN ISLINGTON P11 I WHAT FAR-RIGHT SURGE IN EUROPE MEANS FOR UK P12SOCIETYChild benefit: half a million waiting on delayed paymentP4OPERAGlyndebourne at 90Never been? You’ll be surprised when you doP38NATUREScaling upHow sharks got their huge finsP13Farage blows apart Tory election plan with surprise challenge to Sunak» Nigel Farage announces he will stand as a candidate to become the Reform MP for Clacton in the general election » Reform founder will also take over leadership of party from Richard Tice – allowing him to take part in debates» Farage voices desire to ‘ginger up… the dullest, most boring general election campaign we have ever seen’ » Announcement will be a blow for Tory HQ, who will be concerned Reform may take enough votes to lose them seats to Labour or Lib Dems» Tories announce plans to cap legal immigration to UK if they win election in apparent counter to Labour’s immigration pledge and Farage’s U-turn on standingP7EXCLUSIVELammy: My nuclear conversionOPINIONKaty BallsP8The Tories finally have a flagship policy that could make life difficult for LabourHow to go gluten-free – without sacrificing tasteWELLBEINGShadow Foreign Secretary on his weapons U-turnLabour on course for landslide bigger than Blair, pollsters believe» Starmer would have 422 MPs and majority of 194, according to first detailed prediction» Tories would be reduced to 140 seatsP6P9WORLDTrump on TikTok – and Biden’s already losingP1790pTUESDAY4 JUNE 2024Number 4,2222 0 2 4 N E W S P A P E R O F T H E Y E A R1,000 - 60,000 adults (18-64 y/o) surveyed per country between Apr 2023 - Mar 2024Financial future worriesSOURCE: STATISTA CONSUMER INSIGHTSGreecePortugalArgentinaBrazilSpainUSGermanyUKSwitzerlandFranceShare of respondents saying they are worried about their financial future60%60%49%49%48%48%46%46%43%43%36%36%36%36%35%35%30%30%29%29%WALESPlans to change school year delayedPlans to overhaul the school year have been delayed by the Welsh Government, with teaching groups branding it a “waste of time”.Proposals that would have seen a week taken from the summer holidays and added to the one-week break in October have been postponed by the Cardiff assembly.The changes were expected to come in to force next year, but will now not be implemented until the next Senedd term.The move has been welcomed by some teaching groups, who have said decisions “of this magnitude cannot be taken on a whim”.NORTHERN IRELANDMinister ‘stunned’ by healthcare situation Stormont’s new health minister has been left stunned by briefings he has received on health services in Northern Ireland.Mike Nesbitt repeated to MLAs his determination not to implement cuts that would lead to “catastrophic impacts” on the region’s health services.Setting out the implications of making savings, Mr Nesbitt said this would involve making decisions that will “not be without significant controversy”.Health trusts chairs have warned the projected budget cuts risk causing “avoidable and serious harm” to people in need of care.COURTSBoy, 13, charged over death of teenagerA 13-year-old boy, who cannot be named for legal reasons, has appeared in court charged with murder after the death of a teenager. Kory McCrimmon, 16, from Glasgow, died in hospital on Sunday two days after being found seriously injured following a “disturbance” in a park in the city.The News MatrixThe day at a glanceNewspapers support recycling. The recycled paper content of UK newspapers in 2018 was 68.2% ThePage3Profile ROBERT MACINTYRE, BIG FAN OF HIS DADThe golf father...Scotland’s Robert MacIntyre dedicated his first PGA Tour win to an unusually familiar caddie – his father, Dougie.The golfer, 27, recovered from a shaky start to his final round to win the Canadian Open, saying: “I just wanted to win this for dad”.“This is the guy who has taught NORTHERN IRELANDMan, 85, arrested on suspicion or murder An elderly woman found dead in Co Down has been named by police as Patricia “Patsy” Aust. The body of Ms Aust, 81, was discovered at an address near Clandeboye Road in Bangor on Sunday evening. An 85-year-old man arrested on suspicion of murder remains in police custody. Quote of the dayBirthdaysAngelina Jolie (below), actress, 49; Russell Brand, comedian/actor, 49; Bradley Walsh, actor/presenter, 64; Julian Marley, musician, 49Crossword.............24 TV & Radio...........26 Puzzles.....................27Arts..............................38 Business..................42 Weather...................47TUESDAY4JUNEHe who asks is a fool for five minutes, but he who does not ask remains a fool for everCHINESE PROVERBindexAnniversariesWednesday 4 June 1997 The body of US singer Jeff Buckley is found in the Mississippi River near Memphis. He had vanished while swimming fully clothed and singing the chorus of “Whole Lotta Love” by Led Zeppelin. inews.co.uk/subs(Offer not available in Republic of Ireland or the Channel Islands)and get this paper SUBSC RI BE NOWfor 72pPEOPLEBurrow’s message: ‘be brave... dare to dream’Ex-rugby league player Rob Burrow said “we must still dare to dream” in his final message to the world. Burrow died aged 41 after a four-and-a-half-year battle with motor neurone disease (MND). The father of three urged people to “be brave” and fight whatever personal battles they might be facing. PAGE 13Passengers check in for morning pints Heathrow’s Terminal 2 is celebrating its 10-year anniversary with an indulgent nod to the “no rules at the airport” TikTok trend, which has racked up over six million views in the past six months. A study of 2,000 UK adults found that nearly half of people consider tucking into whatever food and drink they want at whatever time of day is their favourite thing about being at the airport (49 per cent). The big airport highlights for people are:1. Cake for breakfast 2. Morning pint at the pub 3. Making an impulse ‘airport present’ purchase 4. Naps in the middle of the day 5. co*cktails before noon 6. Early morning retail therapy 7. Esoteric ice cream eating 8. Midnight coffees 9. Indulging in more treats than usual 10. Late night retail therapyThe ListISRAELVirgin to fly to Tel Aviv from HeathrowVirgin Atlantic will resume flights between London Heathrow and Israel in September. It will operate a daily flight in each direction between Heathrow and Tel Aviv using Airbus A330 aircraft from 5 September. Many carriers suspended flights to Israel in October last year following the attack on the country by Hamas.How did sharks evolve to become top predators?See p.13POLANDEighteen held for ‘planning sabotage’Poland has arrested 18 people on allegations of pursuing hostile activities on behalf of Russia and Belarus, including plans to assassinate Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky. Ten of those arrested since December were directly involved in planning sabotage across Poland, interior minister Tomasz Siemoniak said.GERMANYFlooding death toll increases to fourThe death toll following floods across a large part of southern Germany has increased to four as three bodies were recovered from inundated basem*nts. Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited the flooded region and officials warned that water levels could rise further. Heavy rain led to flooding in the southern states of Bavaria and Baden-Wuerttemberg .SOCIETYYoung Swift fan forms a band of friendshipAn 11-year-old Taylor Swift fan has made hundreds of friendshipbracelets for people in care homes after making her first one for her 92-year-old great-grandmother. Devon Dickinson, who is going to see Swift perform in Edinburgh, said she hopes to inspire all generations of Swifties to get involved in the craze.© Published by Harmsworth Media, 9 Derry Street, London, W8 5HY. Registered in England and Wales No. 00084121. Printed at Newsprinters (Broxbourne) Ltd; Newsprinters (Knowsley) Ltd; KP Services (Jersey) Ltd; Reach Printing Services Ltd, Cardonald Park, Glasgow; Associated Print (Carn), Ireland. Back issues available from Historic Newspapers, 0844 770 7684.Tuesday 4 June 2024. Registered as a newspaper with the Post Office.3i TUESDAY 4 JUNE 2024NEWS OPINION TV IQ BUSINESS SPORT2-35 18-22 26-31 36-41 42-45 48-56UNITED STATESKilauea volcano starts eruptingKilauea, one of the world’s most active volcanoes, began erupting yesterday in an area that last erupted in December 1974, the US Geological Survey’s Hawaiian Volcano Observatory said. The eruption is about 1.6km south of the Kilauea caldera, in an area within Hawai’i Volcanoes National Park.CONSUMERScottish retail sales suffer ‘mediocre’ MayRetail sales in Scotland fell by 0.5 per cent last month compared with May 2023 when adjusted for inflation. As May turned out to be a “mediocre month” for Scotland’s high streets, retailers are pinning their hopes on a boost from sports events including the Euros and Olympics, the Scottish Retail Consortium (SRC) said.PEOPLELittler signed up for speaking eventsTeenage darts star Luke Littler is ready to take on after-dinner speaking engagements after being signed by the specialist agency Champions. The 17-year-old, who became the youngest finalist at the World Darts championship in January, is also in the process of trademarking his nickname, Luke The Nuke.UNITED STATESBald eagles thriving again in New Jersey The state of New Jersey may remove the bald eagle from its endangered species list, citing a rebound since more than four decades ago, when one nesting pair were the only of its kind in the state. The work of volunteers and professionals who nurtured hatchlings and guarded nests and have helped the birds thrive.me the game of golf and I just can’t believe I have done this with him on the bag,” MacIntyre said after winning the £1.33m prize, the biggest ever won by a Scottish golfer at a single event.Who’s your caddie?Dougie MacIntyre, the head greenskeeper at Glencruitten Golf Club in Oban, spent his evenings coaching his young son, helping him sink his first hole-in-one at the course when he was 12.He broke down in tears after watching Robert beat the likes of Rory McIlroy and Ben Griffin, telling the crowd in Canada: “I’m a grass cutter not a caddie.”MacIntyre recruited his father at the last minute after a string of requests for caddies fell through. “If in doubt, call Dad,” he said to himself, and he rang Dougie.“Last Saturday night, I’m sitting on the couch at home and I’m [thinking], ‘Can I leave my job here? I’m busy at work,”’ Dougie explained. “Eight o’clock the next morning, I’m on a flight out here – and wow.”A reliable partner?In the final round, the Canadian golfer Mackenzie Hughes, who was ranked 76th in the world heading into the tournament, looked as though he would snatch the trophy from MacIntyre’s hands.MacIntyre was steadied by assurances from his father, who kept saying: “We just stay in the fight.” “He knows what to say and when to say it,” MacIntyre added.Dougie MacIntyre will reportedly be returning to his usual job as greenskeeper this week while his son said he was going to throw “one hell of a party” with his girlfriend Shannon Hartley (above right, with Robert and Dougie).Sam RuckerLetter from the Political EditorHugo GyeLess than a fortnight ago, Nigel Farage declared that he just did not have the time to put together a general election campaign and announced he would not stand to be an MP.Yesterday Mr Farage pulled off a screeching U-turn. Not only will he be Reform UK’s candidate in the Essex town of Clacton, he is also taking over as party leader from Richard Tice.His message was clear: “The election is over, it is done... Starmer has won the election.” That is, right-of-centre voters should not back the Conservatives to keep Labour out, because they will fail. Instead, he claimed, they should vote for Reform. The new YouGov MRP poll showing Sir Keir Starmer on track for a landslide larger than Blair’s may help him make this case.Mr Farage has stood for the Commons seven times and lost each contest, even in 2015 when Ukip hit its high water mark of 12.6 per cent of the national vote.Most pollsters believe Reform is unlikely to win a seat at next month’s election; but if it is to take at least one constituency then Clacton – the only seat Ukip ever conquered at a general election – is probably the place and Mr Farage is the person.The bigger question is what this means for the Tory fortunes. Some Conservatives have worried that Mr Farage’s return could be a tipping point that leaves the right’s vote split, allowing Labour or the Lib Dems to win more seats and leaving the Tories with their worst ever result.The other possibility is that everyone who would be attracted is already behind Reform, meaning that his “comeback” does little to shift the polls. We should know within a week or two.Farage U-turn puts pressure on Toriesi@inews.co.uk4 NEWSBy Kyriakos PetrakosThames Water has been criticised for supporting plans for thousands of new homes when it is already struggling to prevent sewage from being pumped into rivers.Concerns were raised by the En-vironment Agency and river cam-paigners after developers sought permission to build two huge hous-ing estates in Oxfordshire. Thames Water assured the planning authori-ties it could handle the extra sewage created by more than 3,000 homes.But the Environment Agency (EA) has stepped in to question the claims, describing the plans as pos-ing an “unacceptable environmen-tal risk”. Doubts are particularly acute because, the EA said, improve-ments to Thames Water’s Oxford Sewage Treatment Works (STW) that were supposed to be completed by next year have been delayed until the 2030s. Raw sewage was discharged by the STW into one of Oxford’s wa-terways, Pottery Stream, for 2,095 hours in 2023, according to EA data.The two housing developments over which Thames Water has been criticised are for 1,800 homes in Cherwell District Council’s region and 1,400 in Barton.The EA said: “Thames Water’s improvement scheme for Oxford sewage treatment works will not be delivered on time. The Environ-ment Agency is concerned any new housing development before this is finished will cause an unacceptable environmental risk.”In a letter objecting to the Cher-well development, the EA said: “We object to this application as submit-ted because the proposed develop-ment would pose an unacceptable risk of pollution to surface water quality and recommend that plan-ning permission should be refused on this basis.”A decision is scheduled to be made about the development on 26 July.Ashley Smith, of the Windrush Against Sewage Pollution (Wasp) campaign group, created to protect the River Windrush, was also con-cerned about Thames Water saying it could cope with the new housing.“Thames Water is saying it could handle increased sewage flows, even when there is compelling evidence suggesting the opposite,” he said.“Their sewage treatment works are totally inadequate.”A spokesperson for Thames Water said: “When responding to local plans and applications, we will un-dertake an assessment of the likely impact the development will have on the existing network and treatment capacity during normal operations.”Thames Water questioned overextra capacityENVIRONMENTCampaigners seeking to protect the River Windrush are concerned about Thames Water saying it could cope with the new housing GETTYBy Joe DugganHMRC has apologised after around 500,000 families missed child ben-efit payments, as parents branded the delay a “shambles”.Thirty per cent of the people who should have been paid yesterday morning missed out, according to the tax office.HMRC has now said all those af-fected will receive their payments tomorrow morning. Some parents said they had gone overdrawn and had no electricity because the ben-efit was not paid.Kayleigh, 34, a mother of four from Gateshead who did not receive her expected payment, said the situ-ation was “a disgrace”.She said she could not afford the bus fares for her children, aged 11, 10, nine and seven, to go back to school yesterday after the half-term break and they had to stay at home. “I can’t get to the food bank as there isn’t one close enough to me. It’s a shambles,” she said.The only food she had in the house, she said, was cereal, with no electricity to put the television on.A n o t h e r m o t h e r, Leigh-Anne Brown, 33, from Bournemouth, said: “The delay in the payments has meant that I was unable to buy my eight-week old son’s formula or school lunch for my nine-year-old.“I have had to borrow money from other family members in order to get these for my children.”An HMRC spokesperson said: “We are very sorry that some customers did not receive their scheduled Child Benefit payments as expected and we understand the concern and dif-ficulty this may have caused. “We have now fixed the problem. “Anyone who has incurred a di-rect financial loss because of the delayed payment can apply for redress by completing our online complaints form.”‘Disgrace’: HMRC sorry after child benefit payments delayedWELFAREThames Water plans to upgrade over 250 sewage treatment sites across its region, including the Oxford STW, which is set to receive a £130m upgrade to improve its treatment capacity.The proportion of people who did not receive their benefit payments yesterday30%5i TUESDAY 4 JUNE 2024NEWS OPINION TV IQ BUSINESS SPORT2-35 18-22 26-31 36-41 42-45 48-56CULTUREMOTORINGCoben praises work of Queen’s reading charityAffordable used electric cars in short supplyBy Kerri-Ann RoperThe author Harlan Coben has com-mended the Queen and the Queen’s Reading Room charity for encourag-ing people to read.Coben is known for novels including Win, Fool Me Once and Tell No One.The American author, who met Queen Camilla earlier this year at Clarence House (pictured), is to take part in the Queen’s Reading Room festival, now in its second year, at Hampton Court Palace on Saturday.Coben said: “I’ve done a lot for lit-erary groups and we’re always try-ing to encourage people to read, and the Queen is doing that.“But I think by tying it into actual science is what I find so interesting.“Scientists, by looking at brain-waves, have discovered that read-ing is good for you, that reading a novel or a book, not scrolling on your phone, increases empathy, and reduces stress and is good for your mental health.“I think that’s really powerful stuff and I commend the Queen and the Queen’s Reading Room for taking that approach to it”.By Neil LancefieldMotorists face a lack of affordable used electric cars.Auto Trader said just 10,000 of the used electric options on its UK-wide online vehicle marketplace cost under £15,000.That is compared with 350,000 used petrol or diesel cars in the same price bracket.But the study also found that three out of four new electric vehi-cles (EVs) are being advertised with a discount.It attributed this to manufacturers striving to meet the Government’s zero-emission vehicle mandate.Auto Trader’s commercial direc-tor Ian Plummer said a “fair and equitable” transition to electric mo-toring will require EVs to be avail-able “in a variety of budgets”.He went on: “We need to make more progress on affordability to encourage demand, especially as exemptions from vehicle excise duty end for EVs next year.”The number of new EVs bought in the UK in the first four months of this year was 10.6 per cent up on the same period in 2023.TRANSPORT ENVIRONMENTFleet upgrade boosts West Coast service Asian hornets pose honeybee threatBy Neil LancefieldTrain capacity has been boosted on one of the UK’s busiest rail routes with the introduction of new roll-ing stock. Avanti West Coast said it had launched six Hitachi-built Evero trains on the West Coast Main Line.The Evero fleet (pictured) will eventually consist of 10 electric trains and 13 bi-modes, which can be powered by electricity or diesel. Avanti West Coast said the bi-modes each have 299 seats – 16 per cent more than the Voyager trains they are replacing. The new trains have also led to additional services between London and Birmingham being added to timetables.Avanti West Coast managing di-rector Andy Mellors said: “The new timetable and the Evero fleet marks an exciting new chapter for our peo-ple and customers.”Office of Rail and Road figures show Avanti West Coast had the third worst reliability of all opera-tors in Britain in the year to the end of March, with the equivalent of one in 15 trains cancelled.By Sam RuckerInvasive Asian hornets have sur-vived the winter in Britain for the first time, according to genetic testing, pos-ing a great threat to honeybee populations.The species (inset), which has wiped out honeybee colonies in France, was first spotted in the UK eight years ago. The Department for Envi-ronment, Food & Rural Affairs (Defra) has since laid traps and de-stroyed nests in an attempt to curb their growth.Findings from a test, which showed Asian hornets found in Four Oaks, East Sussex, were the off-spring of a nest destroyed in Rye last November, is the first proof the hor-nets have survived a UK winter.Its population could be at a “tipping point”, ac-cording to Ian Campbell of the British Beekeep-ers Association. Defra said there were 15 confirmed sightings of the species in March, April and May, while there were only three by the same point last year.Asian hornets are darker and slightly smaller than European hornets. They have been blamed for spoiling fruit crops and raiding honeybee hives.WEATHERUK experiences warmest spring – and one of the wettest – since records beganBy Emilia RandallThe UK has experienced its warm-est spring on record – and one of its wettest – according to provisional Met Office figures.In May 2024, an average tem-perature of 13.1°C was recorded for the UK, beating the previous record in 2008 by a full 1°C, making it the warmest May in records dating back to 1884.During meteorological spring, which covers March, April and May, the average mean temperature for the UK was 9.37°C, beating the previ-ous record of 9.12°C set in 2017, with the warm conditions influenced by high overnight temperatures.Eight of the top 10 warmest springs have now occurred this cen-tury, including all of the top five.The UK had its wettest spring since 1986 and the sixth wettest on record, the figures showed.An average 301.7mm of rain fell on the country across March, April and May, nearly a third (32 per cent) more than usual for the season.The sun was in short supply in May too, with the UK seeing 17 per cent fewer hours of sunshine than aver-age, and with England, Wales, Scot-land and Northern Ireland all having below average sunshine hours.A Met Office spokesperson said: “While it may not have felt like it for many, with sunshine in relatively short supply, provisional figures show May was the warmest on re-cord in our series back to 1884.”After seeing a “taste of summer” on Sunday, whenit reached 24°C in Worcestershire, more rain and blus-tery conditions, especially in Scot-land and the west, are on their way, the Met Office has warned.Marco Petagna, a forecaster at the Met Office, said that for the “week ahead and much of June it’s look-ing more mixed again, but there are signs that towards the end of June we could see something more set-tled, warmer and drier”.He added: “For the three-month period as a whole [June, July and August], temperatures are likely to be above average overall so there’s a chance we’ll see some hot spells but... there’s equal chances of wheth-er it will be wet or dry.“The UK may see sustained highs across the summer months, mean-ing a sustained period of tempera-tures in the high 20s in the South, and the low 20s in the North. It’s ex-pected to be warmer than average.”The wettest spring on record was in 1979, when an average of 327mm of rain fell across the UK.Forecast, page 47Sailor stands tall for D-Day A knitted British sailor is all shipshape adorning a street bollard commemorating the 80th anniversary of D-Day, in Weymouth, Dorset, yesterday FINNBARR WEBSTER/GETTY6 NEWSBy Rachel WearmouthFewer than a third of the electorate trust either of the main political par-ties or their leaders, a poll suggests.A mere 19 per cent said they trust-ed the Government and even fewer (18 per cent) said they trusted Rishi Sunak. Just 15 per cent of people said they trusted Tory MPs vs 30 per cent who said they trusted Labour MPs.Mayors were trusted by 21 per cent and “MPs from other parties” were thought to be honest by 17 per cent of people.Despite polls repeatedly showing that Sir Keir Starmer is on course to be prime minister, the Labour leader was trusted by 29 per cent.The polling is by Yonder Consult-ing and was commissioned by the cross party think-tank Demos as part of its new Trustwatch 2024 project. Trustwatch will track what people think of the big moments in the race for Downing Street – the debates, the manifesto launches, the interviews and the gaffes – with the help of national polling and a 32-per-son panel of voters who represent ordinary people of all political per-suasions and none.The polling, which was carried out before the election was called, also revealed the impact Westminster sleaze has had. While 37 per cent believed that if a political party or campaigner was caught flouting rules the authori-ties would take action, 37 per cent thought they would not.Poly Curtis, chief executive of Demos, said: “We are seeing a long-term decline in trust, with people turning their back on a sys-tem they don’t feel is responsive to their needs. “Our research shows that only a third of the public think an election campaign will represent their con-cerns, and less than a third think the UK is a well-functioning democracy.“Trustwatch 2024 aims to under-stand what could reverse the tide of declining trust. By better under-standing people’s relationship with trust, we can work towards a more collaborative democracy, which cre-ates long-term solutions to the chal-lenges we face.”Net agree Neitheragree nor disagree Net disagree Don't knowPolicy expertsLabour MPsKeir StarmerMayorsThe GovernmentRishi SunakMPs from other partiesConservative MPs36% 33% 23% 8%30% 23% 42%29% 22% 43%21% 34% 34% 11%19% 22% 56%18% 17% 61%17% 36% 40% 7%15% 18% 63%5%6%3%4%4%Source: Yonder Consulting (part of a merger with Populus and registered with the British Polling Council)survey with UK nationally representative sample of 2,000, conducted between 3rd-5th May 2024Challenges for the next governmentI trust the following people or organisations to be honest about what challenges and limitations the next government will facePOLITICSPoll predicts Tory wipeout and landslide for LabourBy Hugo Gye POLITICAL EDITORSir Keir Starmer is on course to win a majority larger than Sir Tony Blair’s, according to the highest-pro-file general election poll so far.A YouGov survey using the MRP technique to forecast the result of every single constituency in Britain suggests that Labour would win 422 Commons seats with the Conserva-tives far behind on 140.Labour’s parliamentary major-ity of 194 in this scenario would be slightly larger than that won by Sir Tony in 1997, while the Tories would be reduced to 140 MPs, their worst result for more than a century.Among the big names from the Conservative Party who would lose their seats are Jeremy Hunt, Penny Mordaunt and Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg.The poll shows the Liberal Demo-crats surging to 48 seats, up from 11 in 2019, with the Scottish National Party slumping from 48 to 17. The Greens would double their number of MPs to two, taking Bris-tol Central off Labour, and Reform UK would fail to take any seats – although the poll was carried out before Nigel Farage announced he would stand in Clacton.The result in Scotland will please Sir Keir with Labour taking twice as many constituencies as the SNP to end to the pro-independence par-ty’s decade-long dominance. Plaid Cymru is also projected to go back-wards, benefiting Labour in Wales.YouGov’s results – collected over the first week of the campaign – show Mr Hunt, the Chancellor, losing his Godalming and Ash seat to the Lib Dems with the Justice Secretary, Alex Chalk, also falling to the party. L a b o u r wo u l d d e fe at M s Mordaunt, the Leader of the Com-mons, and the Defence Secretary Grant Shapps as well as prominent Brexiteers such as Sir Jacob, Steve Baker and Sir Iain Duncan Smith.Other members of the Cabinet deemed likely to be ejected from the Commons include Gillian Keegan, Mel Stride, Simon Hart and Johnny Mercer. The Blair landslide of 1997 had seven cabinet ministers lose their seats, the most ever.Mr Sunak would keep his own seat if the projection turned out to be precisely accurate, as would most of those MPs considered probable candidates to replace him as Tory leader, including Kemi Badenoch, Priti Patel, Suella Braverman, Rob-ert Jenrick and James Cleverly.MRP is a form of statistical analy-sis that seeks to convert an overall national polling result into detailed constituency-level results.In 2017, the YouGov MRP survey was the first to suggest correctly that Theresa May’s Conservatives were on course to lose their majority in the House of Commons, an out-come considered extremely unlikely at the start of that campaign.And at the last general election the same pollster came close to pre-dicting the correct result, although it slightly underestimated the scale of Boris Johnson’s eventual victory.Conventional opinion polls in this election have shown a wider range of results than usual, although all suggest that Labour will win a large Commons majority.In the 1997 election, Labour under Sir Tony won 418 seats while Sir John Major’s Conservatives took 165 and the Lib Dems under Paddy Ash-down had a bump in support. The only time the Tories have per-formed worse than that was in 1906, a landslide for the Liberal Party.POLLINGFewer than one-third of voters trust GovernmentEstimated seat projectionToryLabourLib DemReformGreenPCSNPSource: YouGov422 (+220 from GE2019)140 (-225)48 (+37)17 (-31)2 (+1)2 (-2)0 (=)COURTSLabour vows to ban ‘strategic’ lawsuitsBy David Parsley CHIEF NEWS CORRESPONDENTWealthy individuals, including Rus-sian oligarchs, will be banned from bringing spurious lawsuits to si-lence journalists and campaigners if Labour wins power, David Lammy has said.In an interview with i, the shadow Foreign Secretary said a ban on so-called Slapp orders would form part of Labour’s strategy to shut down the “London laundromat” of dirty money in the UK.The acronym Slapp was coined in the US and stands for “strategic liti-gation against public participation”.It refers to legal claims that are perceived to be brought in order to gag critics by engaging them in cost-ly litigation, rather than because of their legal merit. Mr Lammy will claim today that the Conservative Party has enabled Russian individuals sanctioned since Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine to pursue legal cases “against the very people trying to uncover corruption”. In recent years, scrutiny of wealthy individuals by journalists and campaigners has been regularly stymied by threats of litigation, par-ticularly by Russian oligarchs.Mr Lammy said: “We’ve really got to stop this happening. These are stifling effectively not just the rule of law and freedom of speech, but particularly journalists doing their job to throw a spotlight and transparency on the most egregious behaviour of oligarchy, plutocracy, and very corrupt individuals doing bad things.”Labour’s six-point plan to clamp down on Russia’s “dirty money” in-cludes hosting a summit of allies and international financial centres to launch a co-ordinated initiative to tackle dirty money, take action to stop UK trusts from being used for illicit activity and eliminate the use of Slapp lawsuits by oligarchs.Last year, the Conservative Gov-ernment backed a private members’ bill that would have banned Slapps, but it did not reach the statute book.Nigel Farage changed his mind about the election MAJA SMIEJKOWSKA/REUTERSE L E C T I O N 2 0 2 47i TUESDAY 4 JUNE 2024NEWS OPINION TV IQ BUSINESS SPORT2-35 18-22 26-31 36-41 42-45 48-56COVER STORYFarage seeks election as Reform leader in blow to Tory campaignBy Jane Merrick and Hugo GyeNigel Farage fired a rocket into what he called the “most boring election campaign we have ever seen in our lives” as he announced he would stand as a candidate for Reform UK as its new leader.In a declaration that sent ripples of alarm through the Conserva-tive Party, Mr Farage said he had changed his mind about returning to frontline politics after ruling it out days earlier, and pledged to lead a “people’s army” in a “political revolt” against Westminster’s elite.The move leaves Rishi Sunak in an even bigger fight to defend Tory seats than he was in already, with the prospect of former Conserva-tive voters backing Reform in pro-Brexit seats.But Mr Farage also claimed his party would benefit from former Labour supporters in “Red Wall” areas. He predicted Reform would win more votes than the 4.5 million secured by Ukip at the 2015 election, but did not name a target of seats.The Reform leader, Richard Tice, stepped aside to make way for him shortly before the announcement. The move will allow Mr Farage to take part in debates. Mr Tice (inset) said Reform would be the “voice of opposition” throughout the cam-paign and beyond, and said Labour had already won the election.The announcement is a blow to the Prime Minister, whose election cam-paign has been calibrated to fend off the threat of Reform from the right – with policies on national service, gender recognition and crime.Chris Hopkins, political research director of the polling company Sa-vanta, said: “This is nothing short of a disaster for the Conservative Party. “Everything about this election, from the timing to the apparent strategy, was aimed at squeezing Reform UK’s vote. With Farage’s an-nouncement that is now much hard-er, and Rishi Sunak has nowhere to go – politically or electorally.“He is a significant upgrade on Richard Tice, but he remains a compelling issues cam-paigner, rather than a po-tential prime minister – Labour will be rubbing their hands with glee.”Mr Farage said: “We think this election needs a bit of gingering up. Thus far it is the dullest, most boring campaign we have ever seen in our lives.“Something is happening out there. There is a rejection of the po-litical class going on in this country in a way that has not been seen in modern times. I couldn’t help feel-ing, somehow, they felt, I was letting them down, that I wasn’t standing up for these people.“Difficult though it is, I can’t let down those millions of people. I have decided, I’ve changed my mind.”A Conservative spokesman said: “Farage knows that Reform won’t win any seats, but he doesn’t seem to care that a vote for Reform only helps Labour. ”Mr Farage will stand in the Essex seaside town of Clacton, where the Conservatives won a majority of more than 24,000 in 2019. CommentSo farewell, then, Richard Tice, the latest in the long list of people who have made the fatal error of trying to lead the Faragist movement without being called Nigel Farage. The big man is back: leader of Reform UK (which, in fact, is a company he owns) and standing for Parliament in Clacton.This will be Farage’s eighth bid for a seat in the Commons. It may be his best shot; Douglas Carswell held Clacton for Ukip in a 2014 by-election and the general election a year later.But it’s very bad news for CCHQ. Whatever you think of his politics, Farage is a campaigner of the first rank, and Reform will almost certainly get a boost from having him in the spotlight.He also has much, much better political instincts than Tice, especially when it comes to the real political objective of a right-wing challenger party: unbalancing the Conservatives.Farage grasps that he was always at his most effective when giving the Tories a perceived opportunity to do something about him – most obviously, calling the EU referendum. Dangling the prospect of a deal, as he did last week, maximises the number of nervous MPs making his case inside the larger party.He will also shift the debate into areas that Rishi Sunak would rather not talk about. Perhaps the most interesting part of Farage’s launch was that he directly tied the cost of living to the housing crisis, and the housing crisis to immigration.That is a coherent argument, even if you dispute his solutions – and the Prime Minister won’t be happy talking about any of it.The cost of living? Sunak likes to say that getting inflation down is “the best tax cut of all”. But it was his decision to freeze income tax thresholds, breaking 40 years of cross-party consensus, that turned inflation into an automatic tax hike – from which he has now promised to exclude only pensioners.As for housing, well… it feels significant that despite the Conservatives’ strategy of dropping big policy announcements to try to set the media tempo, there has been no bold announcement on housing. Michael Gove, the Housing Secretary, was wheeled out a few days ago to announce… a crackdown on fly-tipping.Post-election, Farage is likely to be more a hindrance than a help to the right, a pied piper leading it down the path of magical thinking. In the campaign, however, he may at least force the party to reckon with where its real blind spots are.Henry Hill is the deputy editor of ConservativeHome, a blog that is independent of the ConservativesThe big man’s return will raise awkward questions for SunakHenry HillBORDERSTories plan to cap immigrationBy Arj Singh DEPUTY POLITICAL EDITORLegal immigration to the UK will be capped if the Conservatives win the election, Rishi Sunak has promised.The Prime Minister’s announce-ment appeared designed to outflank Labour’s own pledge to cut immigra-tion, without setting a target or limit, and to counter Nigel Farage’s U-turn in deciding to stand for Reform UK in the 4 July election.But Mr Sunak also refused to put a number on where he wants immigra-tion to get down to after a net migra-tion to the UK of 685,000 last year, a drop on the record 764,000 that came to the country in 2022.Instead, a future Tory government would ask the independent Migra-tion Advisory Committee to provide a recommendation for an annual cap. It would then considerthe ad-vice and put forward a proposal to MPs for a vote. Slip 8 NEWS CommentAhead of the latest Conservative campaign pledge going public, Tory campaign aides were keen to get out in front. “Critics will say this is a culture war policy – but it really isn’t,” insisted one party figure on Sunday night. Within minutes of the announcement that a re-elected Tory government would change the Equality Act to make clear that the protected characteristic of sex is “biological sex”, the party was being accused of just this: exploiting division for electoral gain.While Labour dismissed the Tories’ plan to – in the words of Kemi Badenoch – protect “the privacy and dignity of women and girls” in women-only spaces as an “election distraction”, the harsher criticism has come from Sunak’s own side. The Tory Reform group – which is viewed to sit on the left of the party – issued a series of tweets arguing that “the Conservative Party has to think very carefully about the type of campaign it wants to run, and the longer term impact of stoking culture wars”. The group went on to say that voters are rejecting the “politics of division” and the party ought to resist tapping into “wedge issues” for a narrow core base.While some Tories already regard the Tory Reform group as essentially a Lib Dem outfit, where they will hit a nerve is that MPs increasingly believe the Tory campaign is a core vote strategy – with a slew of policies aimed at giving traditional Tory voters a reason to get out and vote. The key focus so far has been older voters, with pensioner-friendly policies being announced. Talking about what makes a woman a woman is certainly comfortable terrain for the Tory party. In times of Conservative trouble, it’s been one of the key attack lines they like to use on Starmer. MPs will laugh at the number of interviews where the Labour leader and many of his colleagues have seemed uncomfortable and perplexed on the subject.Gender is a subject that divides Labour more than the Tories – even if most in Labour are keeping quiet for now, scared of doing anything that could upset Starmer’s path to power. It took effort from certain female members of the Shadow Cabinet – such as the shadow Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood – to change the party’s position on the importance of biological sex. A key point came last July, when Starmer scrapped his self-identification policy which would allow people to legally change gender without a medical diagnosis. Discussions are now under way as to how many medical professionals ought to be needed to change gender.So this is a Tory policy in part aimed at causing the Labour party problems. But it is also one that is consistent with the actions of the Tory party in office. Badenoch – who leads in this brief and was out today – has long been a champion of the importance of biological sex. Sunak’s government intervened over the SNP’s gender recognition act due to concerns that it would go against the devolution sentiment.What’s more, activists from various women’s groups have argued previously that this is a much-needed change – on the grounds that the current law is unclear, which means courts and organisations are unsure what their legal obligations are when it comes to how to treat those with gender recognition certificates.It’s therefore the case that this policy isn’t so surprising coming from the Tories. The bigger problem is not that they could be accused of stoking a culture war. It’s that voters could rightly ask: if the party believes in it so much, why didn’t they do it while they were in government? It could have put off the election until autumn in order to make changes, or perhaps tried during the previous 14 years. This is one of the frustrations among Tory MPs. Given the polls suggest the party will struggle to win anything near a majority of 80 like in 2019, shouldn’t they have stuck it out a little longer and enacted more policies? Instead, they are left having to make a string of promises that few voters believe they will get the chance to deliver.Katy Balls is the political editor of ‘The Spectator’ magazineThe Tories finally have a policy that could trip up Labour Katy BallsPOLICYLabour ‘to keep’ Equality Act as Tories seek revisionBy Chloe Chaplain SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENTLabour would provide guidance to hospitals and sports bodies on when biological women should be given single-sex spaces that would exclude trans women, a shadow minister has said.The Conservative Party has pledged to amend the Equality Act to make clear sex means “biological sex” rather than gender.This, it said, would make it easier for service providers to ensure wom-en-only spaces are protected.But Labour sources said Sir Keir Starmer’s party would avoid chang-ing the Act, arguing the protections the Conservative Party is seeking to bolster are already covered in the existing law.Shadow Defence Secretary John Healey said Labour wanted instead to clarify guidance around specific providers such as healthcare or those running domestic violence shelters for women.Speaking to Times Radio, he said the Act “already provides protec-tions for single-sex spaces for bio-logical women”.He added: “It already provides a definition of a woman, and sex and gender are different. What is need-ed is clearer guidance for service providers, from the NHS to sports bodies, and in prisons, on what sin-gle-sex exemptions need to be, and the best way to be able to do that is in guidance, not primary legislation.”Labour sources also suggested the policy was an attempt to use “culture wars” as an election campaign tactic, a claim dismissed by Rishi Sunak.The Prime Minister told broad-casters the pledge to amend the Equality Act “builds on our track record of treating these issues sen-sitively and with compassion, as of course we should, but ensuring that our laws are right, our guidance is right to protect the safety and secu-rity of women and girls and the well-being of our children”.Women and Equalities Minister Kemi Badenoch stressed the Con-servatives were seeking to clarify the Equality Act, not change it. She said sex and gender had been “used interchangeably” and referenced in-stances of “people misinterpreting the law”.But in an interview with the BBC she could not answer questions on whether someone’s original birth certificate – or one amended after a legal gender change – would be re-lied on to determine biological sex.She told LBC Radio: “We want people who are trans to be protect-ed; people who want to change their clothes should not be able to exploit the scenarios we have prepared and the laws we have put in place to pro-tect those people who are genuine transgender people, those who suf-fer gender dysphoria. Just putting on a different set of clothes does not make you transgender.”Gender issues Parties’ policiesLabour In July 2023, the party said it would no longer commit to a “self-ID” system for transgender people, which would have allowed them to legally change their gender without obtaining a medical diagnosis of gender dysphoria.Anneliese Dodds, Labour’s shadow Secretary of State for Women and Equalities, said at the time that the party would commit to streamlining the process for obtaining a certificate rather than dropping it altogether.In 2022, Sir Keir Starmer refused to answer a question on whether a woman can have a penis. In April this year, he said his understanding of gender-related issues “start[s] with “biology”.Conservatives The party has pledged to rewrite the Equality Act to clarify that the protections it provides regarding someone’s sex refer to their biological sex.The 2010 Equality Act makes it illegal to discriminate against someone based on their sex, but there is a lackof clarity over whether this applies to someone’s gender at birth or the gender that appears on their birth certificate, which can be changed.Liberal Democrats In its 2019 manifesto, the party advocated for a “complete reform of the Gender Recognition Act to eliminate the requirement for medical reports, abolish the fee and recognise non-binary gender identities”.Reform UKParty has pledged to ban “transgender ideology” in primary and secondary schools, stating that there are “two sexes and two genders” and that it is a “dangerous safeguarding issue to confuse children by suggesting otherwise”.Kemi Badenoch has championed the importance of biological sex E L E C T I O N 2 0 2 49i TUESDAY 4 JUNE 2024NEWS OPINION TV IQ BUSINESS SPORT2-35 18-22 26-31 36-41 42-45 48-56DEFENCE‘Putin threat’ behind Lammy’s nuclear U-turn By David Parsley CHIEF NEWS CORRESPONDENTDavid Lammy has said he is “100 per cent behind the UK’s nuclear deter-rent” after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine changed his mind on the issue.The shadow Foreign Secretary (inset), who voted against renew-ing the Trident nuclear programme in 2016, – as did Labour’s deputy lead-er Angela Rayner – said the war and visits to Ukraine had “truly shown me the seriousness of the systemic risk that Vladimir Putin poses to our country”.His comments followed the launch of Labour’s defence strategy yester-day, during which Sir Keir Starmer said he would be prepared to use nuclear weapons to defend the UK.However, not all Labour front-benchers have fo l lowed Mr Lammy’s conversion.Ms Rayner yesterday said she had not changed her mind on the UK hav-ing nuclear weapons – despite Sir Keir say-ing his whole Shadow Cabinet was behind his defence strategy.In 2016 Mr Lammy cited his Christian faith as the rea-son for his opposition.But in an interview with i, he in-sisted he now fully supported the UK’s nuclear weapons programme.“The truth is, I suppose, is what I’ve seen in Ukraine, and as a privy councillor, the access that I’ve had on bipartisan terms with the gov-ernment since the war in Ukraine has truly shown me the seriousness of the systemic risk that Vladimir Putin poses to our country,” he said.“Had Ukraine been allowed to retain their nuclear weapons after its independence from the Soviet Union, they would not have faced the invasion that they did from Putin.“So… the nuclear deterrent is es-sential, and that’s why John Healey [Labour’s shadow Defence Secre-tary] has talked about… upgrading our submarines, absolutely 100 per cent maintenance of Trident and our long-term commitment to spending 2.5 per cent of GDP on defence.”Mr Lammy also said he had been inspired by former Labour foreign secretary Ernest Bevin who is wide-ly credited as having driven the crea-tion of Nato in 1949.One of Nato’s key strategies was the West’s nuclear deterrent during the Cold War with the Soviet Union.Mr Lammy said: “I and many oth-ers… owe a debt to Bevin… He was central to the nuclear deterrent.”POLICYLabour to rebrand Johnson’s ‘40 hospitals’ planBy Ben Gartside and Alannah FrancisA Labour election victory could be the final nail in the coffin for Boris Johnson’s pledge to build “40 new hospitals” by 2030, with the party set to rebrand the “unsustainable” scheme if it wins power, according to industry sources.The New Hospital Programme was a flagship pledge of Mr John-son’s 2019 manifesto, which was re-peated by Rishi Sunak after calling the election last month.But it has been blighted by delays and accusations that the Conserva-tives had exaggerated the help it would provide and the number of hospitals that would be built.Wes Streeting (pictured, above left), the shadow Health Secre-tary, has said that Labour is “com-mitted to delivering the New Hospitals Programme”.But those close to the project ex-pect Labour to rebrand the scheme, partially due to its associations with Mr Johnson (above, right) and the rows over how many completely new hospitals it would include.One industry source told i: “The general expectation is Labour will want capital investment at size and speed, but… a reframing will defi-nitely happen and procurement may have to be redone. “The 40 hospitals nonsense and image of Boris will make it harder – when there are ultimately not 40 new hospitals, it could allow people to blame Labour.”Labour sources said the party would aim to provide certainty to NHS trusts about which projects would go still ahead. The scheme has suffered delays, and money has been diverted to ur-gent repairs in hospitals built with crumbling concrete.Ultimately, only three completely new hospitals were included in the final plans, with rebuilds or exten-sions promised in another 37.Construction industry sources told i officials were due to decide which contractors would manage the next phases of the scheme in England. But this has been paused until after polling day.Labour has been quiet on the pro-gramme so far, but has set out com-mitments to continue work on some hospitals in battleground seats, such as Milton Keynes.The crisis over reinforced auto-claved aerated concrete (RAAC) is also thought to have had a serious impact on the project’s funding.Status of projectsOf the 40 original new hospital projects, it is estimated that 22 are rebuilds of existing hospitals, 12 are new wings within existing hospi-tals, three involve rebuilding non-urgent care hospitals, and three are completely new hospitals. The ex-prime minister Boris Johnson had dismissed criticism that many of the projects are rebuilds, saying: “You don’t go building on greenfield sites… you rebuild hospi-tals and that is what we said for the last two-and-a-half years.”The first of the 40 projects begun after the launch – the Dyson Cancer Centre in Bath – opened in April, months behind schedule. It is due to be followed by Shotley Bridge Hospital in County Durham in 2025.The next government is being urged to hold talks on nurses’ pay immediately after the election to avoid a worsening delay in a wage rise.The Royal College of Nursing (RCN) warned of a six-month delay to this year’s NHS pay increase if negotiations are not held in the weeks after the election. Professor Nicola Ranger, the RCN’s acting general secretary, made the call in her keynote speech at the college’s annual congress in Newport, south Wales, yesterday.The RCN’s election manifesto contained recommendations, including a “substantial” pay rise for nursing staff.It also wants an end to patients being treated in corridors, safety-critical staffing ratios and changes to immigration laws to allow families to remain united.EMPLOYMENTMake nurses’ pay a priority, urges unionENERGYTories have claimed “reckless plans” from Labour and the SNP on oil and gas development mean the “entire economy” in the north-east of Scotland is “on the line” in the general election.The Scottish Conservatives leader, Douglas Ross, raised fears that both parties plan to halt new oil and gas developments, saying this would “turn off the taps in the North Sea”.He spoke out ahead of a debate on the energy sector that the Tories will lead in Holyrood tomorrow.It comes amid speculation that Scotland’s First Minister, John Swinney, could move away from the presumption against new developments in the North Sea – which was the policy of predecessors Nicola Sturgeon and Humza Yousaf – to one more focused on a “managed transition”.Tories describe oil plans as ‘reckless’Splits appeared in the Labour leader-ship yesterday as the deputy leader Angela Rayner insisted she remained opposed to the UK’s nuclear deter-rent, in comments that differ sharply from party leader Sir Keir Starmer.In 2016, she voted against the renewal of the Trident nuclear weapons system. She said: “Thevote we had some years ago mentioned nothing about multilateral disarma-ment and what I feel is really impor-tant for the long term is that globally we should be looking at disarmament of nuclear weapons, but that has to be done with other countries.”Grant Shapps, Defence Secre-tary, described Labour as “a risk to Britain’s defences”. He said: “Angela Rayner’s comments casting doubt on the future of our nuclear deter-rent show the claims made by Keir Starmer about the ‘changed’ Labour Party are a con.”Nuclear deterrent Labour leadership policy split10 NEWSStarmer aims to rile PM into display of tetchiness Labour leader has been practising debates with stand-in. By Arj SinghSir Keir Starmer will look to bring out Rishi Sunak’s “tetchy” side by needling him on his record in the first TV debate today, Labour sources have said.The Labour leader spent yesterday rehearsing for the ITV debate, going up against the Labour adviser Tom Webb, who is a seasoned Mr Sunak impersonator having stood in for the Tory leader during Prime Minister’s Questions prep.Aides insist that Sir Keir has been preparing for some time via Q&A events with voters on the campaign trail, and plans to play the role of prosecutor – harking back to his former career – to grill Mr Sunak on the Conservative record in government.Labour is expecting the Conservatives to take a personal approach in their attack on Sir Keir and is bracing for what the party describes as “culture wars” topics – such as yesterday’s announcement on sex and gender. But the party is hoping that needling the PM on his record will bring out his “tetchy” side. Mr Sunak has developed a reputation for being snappy under pressure and Sir Keir’s aides are hoping this will be shown on TV.Another Labour insider, who was involved in debate preparations under Ed Miliband in the 2015 election, said Sir Keir will have a team raking over past footage of Mr Sunak in Tory leadership debates against Liz Truss in 2022.“He was quite timid in the first one, but in the second one he came out swinging, but to the extent that everyone thought he was a massive weirdo,” the source said.“They will also be looking at interactions with journalists – he’s often very tetchy – they will be trying to use that.”A senior Tory source refused to respond directly on the comments or reveal Mr Sunak’s debate strategy, simply quipping: “Starmer got pretty tetchy this week about Diane Abbott.”Many believe Mr Sunak has nothing to lose given he cannot shift a roughly 20-point polling deficit to Labour.But others see it as a moment where the Prime Minister simply must make an impact.James McGrory, who was a special adviser to ex-deputy prime minister Nick Clegg when he sparked “Cleggmania” in the first election TV debates in the UK in 2010, said Mr Sunak would be wrong to see it as a “free hit”.“He needs moments in this campaign to make some ground up, to convince some people, because people are not convinced.“And if Labour don’t make mistakes, what are Sunak’s big opportunities to land some serious punches on Starmer? In day-to-day campaigning that’s really hard to do.“These debates might be it, and this debate is probably his biggest chance. So the pressure is more on him than Starmer.”James Schneider, Jeremy Corbyn’s former director of communications who helped prepare the ex-Labour leader for debates in 2017 and 2019, agreed that if you are behind “you have to take your chances at every opportunity”. “We were coming from a long way behind in both campaigns, POLITICSJoin i for the TV leader debatesAsk our politics expertsSend your questions to polsquestions@inews.co.uk or @theipaper on Twitter/XWe will answer them during tonight's Sunak vs Starmer contest at inews.co.uk E L E C T I O N 2 0 2 4so we wanted to do better than a score draw.“Whereas for Theresa May a 0-0 draw was fine, and for Boris Johnson a score draw was fine, and I think for Keir a 0-0 draw will be fine.”While the leaders thrash it out in the studio, their teams are fighting a war backstage and online.Mr Schneider said his team backing Mr Corbyn had a “social media war room” running for the debates, amplifying the leader’s messages and rebutting what the opponent says.“That’s a big part of it because there is the audience that watches it, and then there’s the perception of how it went.“More people hear about what happened rather than watch it themselves.”Then afterwards, it is over to political big beasts to win the spin room battle.Giles Kenningham, David Cameron’s former press secretary, said it begins while the leaders are still talking, insisting “you have to spin in real time” and “cast your verdict well before the end” via “big beasts in the spin room”.“Labour used to have [Peter] Mandelson who would go down and declare victory before the end.“You’d want someone like Boris [Johnson] in there, someone with a good turn of phrase who can capture the moment.”Lib Dems crash PM’s partyA boat carrying Liberal Democrat supporters passes along the Thames as Rishi Sunak visits the Leander rowing club in Henley yesterday. CARL COURT/AFP/GETTYE L E C T I O N 2 0 2 411i TUESDAY 4 JUNE 2024NEWS OPINION TV IQ BUSINESS SPORT2-35 18-22 26-31 36-41 42-45 48-56The Corbyn conundrum: where do voters’ loyalties lie? The former Labour leader is dividing opinion in his London constituency. By Rachel WearmouthFew were surprised when Jeremy Corbyn announced he would contest Islington North, the London constituency he has represented since 1983, as an independent.Sir Keir Starmer had already cast the former leader out of the parliamentary party after Corbyn claimed that antisemitism within Labour had been “dramatically overstated”. It seemed only a matter of time before he was also barred from standing for re-election by the party’s ruling body.The question now is whether the long-standing socialist will be returned to Parliament without Labour’s red rose next to his name on the ballot.Conservative politicians have long cast Islington as the spiritual home of what Suella Braverman once called “the Guardian-reading, tofu-eating wokerati”.Streets of townhouses with immaculate gardens suggest the constituency undoubtedly has its share of wealthy residents, but this is also a diverse area with sizeable pockets of deprivation.Allies of the left-winger believe that his long history serving the community in the north London seat will inspire enough loyalty to allow him to see off the party that he led at the last general election.However, there is also diversity of thought. Corbyn won Islington North with a 26,188 majority in 2019 but there is mixture of views – and, for some, real doubt – about the wisdom of re-electing him on 4 July.Sophie Lewis, a mother-of-two who volunteers at the Crisis charity store in Finsbury Park, has decided to stick with Labour as a party.“There is definitely a need for a change of government, and I include Jeremy Corbyn in that, so I will probably vote Labour,” she says.“I don’t really have a strong opinion of him either way, but we have got to get someone new in. Overall, I just think Labour is more plausible.”And at the Arch café, also in Finsbury Park, customers enjoying a mid-morning break are divided about who to vote for.Tom Clarke says he “will continue voting Labour”, adding: “Corbyn has been an excellent local MP for the constituency and, due to that service, it isn’t as easy as a decision as I once thought.“However, on reflection, it comes down to the bigger picture – I want Labour to have as big a majority to implement the change the country desperately needs, without an MP who historically fights and votes against his party when in power and when not in power.”Corbyn’s case is that Labour’s decisionto block him was undemocratic and that he will be “an independent voice for equality, democracy and peace”.For Mohammed Beneddane, who works as a barista in the café, that might be enough. “I’m probably going to vote for Jeremy Corbyn,” he says.“He looks after the people round here and we have known him for a long time. But I don’t know. I’m going to look at the manifestos and see what they all have to offer.”To keep his seat, the ex-Labour leader will have to beat his old party’s new candidate, Praful Nargund, a local councillor and businessman who runs a chain of IVF clinics.And the wider political considerations may help Labour’s cause in Islington North.Like all areas, housing costs, a punishing period of high inflation and the struggling post-Covid economy have left some people on the breadline.“I’m quite keen on Jeremy Corbyn, I have voted for him for 15 years,” says Rabah Zeguir, a customer service specialist who is in between jobs. “But the cost of living is a big issue for people and we need change from top to bottom.“A lot of people here are hurting and the country’s going downhill – things really need to get better. I know Jeremy is a socialist and socialists end up borrowing a lot of money, so I worry about that.”Starmer’s determination to move away from Corbyn’s left-wing agenda has fuelled the growth in support for the party in areas such as the “Red Wall”, but it is more divisive in north London. And the party’s response to the Israel-Gaza conflict has also sown distrust.“Jeremy’s caring, he’s compassionate,” says Tayyaba Sajid, a shop worker, who says she and her family will not be backing Labour. “I’ve always been quite leftist and Labour has lost my vote.“I feel like Keir Starmer is Blair mark two.”But Catherine Briar, an estate agent, suggests there is a feeling of fatigue over the political wrangling between Corbyn and his former party.“Most people just want to move on rather than repeating the past over and over, so I don’t know if Jeremy Corbyn will find it easy to get re-elected in these circ*mstances,” she says.Friends say Corbyn’s decision to put himself forward was the result of much soul-searching. Standing against the party of which he has been a member since he was 16 meant automatic expulsion, something he has said left him “saddened”.It is also a high-risk strategy that could end in rejection. Despite being the former Labour leader, Corbyn is battling difficult odds – independents rarely succeed when up against an established party in a safe seat.PEOPLEJeremy Corbyn, pictured with his wife, Laura Alvarez, is standing for Islington North as an independent in the general election STEFAN ROUSSEAU/PAIndependents rarely succeed when up against an established party in a safe seatENVIRONMENTGroups advocate climate debateBy Rebecca Speare-ColeThe climate crisis must be a key issue during general election de-bates and television coverage, green groups have said.Several environmental organisa-tions have written to leading UK broadcasters ahead of the first live debate between Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer on ITV this evening.The groups said nature and the cli-mate crisis are of “real concern” to voters but have featured little during the campaigns.“Support for climate action re-mains overwhelmingly high among all demographics of the UK public,” they wrote in a letter sent to the BBC, Channel 4, ITV, Sky and Global over the weekend.“As broadcasters you have a duty to ensure that general election cov-erage reflects the public’s desire to see strong and serious leadership on climate and nature recovery – and a genuine debate about the solutions.”The groups highlighted how cli-mate and nature are “deeply inter-twined” with other key issues, like energy costs, farming, health and the cost of living crisis. “We ask you to make a commitment to ensure that the main parties’ plans to meet our legal climate and nature targets are properly examined,” they wrote.The signatories were Green Alli-ance, WWF, Greenpeace UK, RSPB, National Trust, The Wildlife Trusts, Hope for the Future, The Climate Coalition, Wildlife and Countryside Link and Possible.BORDERSRwanda flights planned for late July By Jess GlassThe Government has told the High Court that it plans to begin remov-als to Rwanda in late July after it previously told a judge that flights would not take off until after the general election.Late last month, Mr Justice Chamberlain ordered the Cabinet Office and Home Office to tell the court the earliest date they planned to start removals.The order was made in the context of a challenge brought by the FDA trade union, with Government law-yers telling the judge that it “does not intend to carry out enforced remov-als to Rwanda before the General Election on 4 July 2024”.At the start of a hearing yesterday, on a challenge brought by charity Asylum Aid, the High Court in Lon-don heard the first flight was now planned for 24 July.Mr Justice Chamberlain said the Home Office “has said a number of things” about when the first flight is set to be.He added that the legal were “all going to be subject to the outcome of the general election… but we ob-viously can’t make any predictions about that”.12 NEWSSECURITYMI6 ‘recruited Chinese couple as spies for UK’By Caolan MageeChina has accused a married couple of spying for the British government in a rare instance of Beijing releasing details about alleged UK espionage.China’s ministry of state security (MSS) claimed that a man named as Mr Wang and his wife, Ms Zhou, both worked in “confidential” de-partments of a Chinese state agency, while on the payroll of MI6.MSS claims Mr Wang was enticed into spying after studying in the UK in 2015 where he was befriended by security operatives posing as stu-dents and invited to dinners and tours arranged by Britain’s intelli-gence agency.The operatives took “special care” of Mr Wang and used his “strong desire for money” to lure him into a consulting opportunity, Beijing alleged. The ministry claimed that MI6 decided “conditions were ripe” to offer Mr Wang more money to re-turn to China to collect information related to its government.The ministry said MI6 then of-fered Mr Wang double the money to convince his wife to spy for the UK: “Under Wang’s instigation, Zhou agreed to collect intelligence… he and his wife became British spies.”MSS said it had taken “decisive measures” against Mr Wang, and that the case against the alleged spies is under further investigation.Dr Jonathan Sullivan, a China spe-cialist at University of Nottingham’s School of Politics, told i: “The UK security agencies are active in China but they don’t seem to rely much on human intelligence – or else their operatives are extremely good, or the Chinese don’t announce their discoveries for counter-intelligence or other purposes . We almost never hear ‘UK spies uncovered’ stories.”Several Western countries have accused Beijing of espionage in a series of tit-for-tat claims. In April, Christopher Cash, a UK parliamen-tary researcher, and Christopher Berry, an academic, were charged with spying for China after allegedly providing information that could be “useful to an enemy”. In May, a former Royal Marine, Matthew Trickett, who was charged with helping Hong Kong gather intel-ligence in the UK was found dead in unexplained circ*mstances.In 2022, British security services issued an alert alleging that UK-based lawyer Christine Lee was en-gaged in “political interference” on behalf of the Chinese state.Dr Sullivan said: “We have got bet-ter as national security has become a more salient concern, and that might be why we are detecting more China-related espionage: not that China is increasing its activity, but we are get-ting better at finding it.”The Foreign Office last month summoned the Chinese ambassador to explain the recent pattern of behaviour directed by China against the UK, including cyber attacks and reports of espionage links.UK faces fallout from a surge in the far right across EuropeBritain could be marginalised in talks on trade and borders by an inward-looking EU. By Leo CendrowiczVoters are expected to cast ballots in record numbers across the EU’s 27 member states over four days from Thursday, when polls open for the European Parliament elections.However, opinion polls suggest a surge of support for far-right and Eurosceptic parties, potentially signalling a political earthquake that could reverberate around the world, and have implications for the UK.The political shift comes amid widespread voter unease across Europe after turbulence from the pandemic to the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, with mainstream parties struggling to project stable leadership. The rise of far-right populist figures such as Geert Wilders (inset, below) in the Netherlands, Marine Le Pen in France, Viktor Orbán in Hungary and Giorgia Meloni in Italy reflects a growing disenchantment with the EU’s handling of issues such as migration.For the far right, this is about realigning the EU away from what it sees as a centralising bureaucracy and reverting to traditional values. “Europe is at a crossroads and these European elections represent the choice of the path we want to take for our future,” Susanna Ceccardi, an MEP with Italy’s hard-right Lega party, says. “We want to build a Europe of sovereign, free and strong nations that make Europe stronger, a Europe of peoples and territories that cultivate their roots, traditions and cultural identity.”Ms Ceccardi says there is a reaction against the mainstream political groups, who have upheld the agenda of Ursula von der Leyen, the conservative president of the European Commission. “There are those who would like the united states of Europe, a centralising superstate that eliminates the differences between peoples and propagates cancel culture, woke ideology, false multiculturalism and eco-terrorism. It is the Europe of bureaucrats, of elites that no one has elected,” she said.A European Parliament that shifts significantly to the right would be less inclined to co-operate. “As the UK knows all too well, a right-wing government is an inward-looking government,” says Rebecca Christie, a senior fellow at Bruegel, a Brussels-based think-tank. “Since Brexit, the EU already is consulting the UK a lot less on pretty much everything. “And if the EU really becomes consumed with a lot of these European values battles, and tugs-of-war between the centre and, say Viktor Orbán in Hungary, the UK is just going to fade out.”Turmoil in the EU could complicate negotiations and partnerships on anything from immigration to trade to security.EuropeElects, which compiles national polls, predicts that far-right parties could win up to a third of the parliament’s 720 seats, up by a third since the last elections in 2019. The European Council on Foreign Relations think-tank forecasts that Eurosceptic populists will top the polls in nine EU nations – including Austria, Belgium, France and the Netherlands – and will come second or third in nine countries.They are unlikely to dominate the next parliament, but they could derail the EU’s legislative agenda, including the next round of climate change laws and foreign policy.A January report by US think-tank the Atlantic Council stated that “more co–operation is needed” between the UK and EU on climate, adding that “an EU-UK partnership based on accelerating the clean energy transition would be a logical step”.“The vital question is whether the centre holds. Or will the extremes disrupt it and prevent us from moving forward,” says Seán Kelly, an Irish MEP from Fine Gael, part of the European People’s Party group.“Decision-making has always been difficult, but it could become even harder. The far right won’t be able to control matters, but they could hold things up. And it could have serious implications for financing the war in Ukraine and financing the green deal.”The rise of the far right could be significant for Ukraine, facing a renewed Russian onslaught, and desperately seeking more arms and aid: many far-right MEPs have questioned whether the EU should be supporting Kyiv, and some have even advocated victory for Russia.The UK has played a vital role in the Western response as Russia’s invasion motivated renewed co-operation across Europe, according to academics writing for Engage, a project that examines challenges to global governance.They warned that if the US voted for another Trump administration, UK and EU leadership would be “even more critical to maintaining and co-ordinating Western efforts” – and that if populist representation increased in Europe, Britain’s role would be “appreciated even more in European capitals where populist government do not hold sway”.The former UK national security adviser Lord Ricketts recently observed in Politico that “any shift in the bloc’s foreign policy will inevitably have implications for the UK’s national security”, but said the EU and UK had generally been aligned on key issues to date.Fabian Zuleeg, chief executive of the European Policy Centre, expects relations between Britain and the EU to improve with a new government in London in July, and does not think the European election will have a major impact.However, he suggests a strong result for the far right could inspire nationalist politicians in the UK, such as Nigel Farage’s Reform Party. “There will certainly be a narrative from the far right in the UK that the strong showing in the elections is a sign that European populations are looking for a different Europe,” he said.ELECTIONS Italy’s PM Giorgia Meloni at a military parade in Rome on Sunday GETTY13i TUESDAY 4 JUNE 2024NEWS OPINION TV IQ BUSINESS SPORT2-35 18-22 26-31 36-41 42-45 48-56SCIENCESharks evolved into top predators after being forced closer to surfaceBy Tom Bawden ENVIRONMENT CORRESPONDENTThe great white shark, the ham-merhead and other “pelagic” sharks owe their status as the ocean’s top predators to a sustained bout of global warming 93 million years ago, a study has found.At that point, during the Creta-ceous period, sharks were bottom dwellers, living in the depths of the ocean.But a massive outpouring of vol-canic lava sent carbon dioxide levels soaring, creating a “greenhouse gas effect” like the one we are seeing in the current era. That trapped heat in the atmos-phere and pushed ocean tempera-tures as high as 28.3°C on the surface, compared with about 20°C now.As the water warmed, the oxygen levels fell to the point that forced several shark species to relocate to the surface, where oxygen levels were higher and they could breathe more easily.Oxygen levels are much higher at the surface of the ocean than at the bottom, even though the water is warmer.Once there, these species – col-lectively known as pelagic sharks – evolved longer, thinner pectoral fins, situated on each side of the shark.These enabled them to swim more efficiently, giving more en-ergy to spend catching prey in the vast open oceans, which often in-volved extended bouts of sustained fast swimming.“Rising temperatures drove some shark species into the open water system, which not only changed how they look but also likely had effects on the entire marine ecosystem” as sharks became top predators and re-shaped the food chain beneath them, Phillip Sternes, of University of Cali-fornia at Riverside, said.“The pectoral fins are a critical structure, comparable to our arms. We saw that these fins changed shape as sharks expanded their habitat